Group-Stage Predictions: The Lads’ Picks for Every Group

The expanded 48-team format means three group games, twelve groups and a chaotic ‘best third-placed’ race for the Round of 32. We’ve gone through each group with the bookmakers’ to-qualify markets and our own gut, and here’s where we landed.

A quick note on format: the top two from each group go through automatically, plus the eight best third-placed sides. In practice that means four points usually books a Round of 32 spot, and even three can be enough if your goal difference is healthy. That changes how you read the to-qualify prices — third-place value is real this tournament.

Mexico to top it (best price 1.85 on bet365), South Korea second. The hosts have the altitude advantage in Mexico City for two of three games and a manageable opener against Saudi Arabia.

Czechia at 4.20 to qualify is the small-stake play — Hložek-Schick is more goals than people think, and they’ll only need to beat Saudi Arabia and grab a point off Korea. Saudi Arabia look the weakest team in the group on paper; goals against them might decide third place.

Switzerland over Canada feels like the trader trap, but we’re with the bookies — Canada top, Switzerland second, Bosnia the upset to watch. Canada’s home advantage in Toronto is real, and the Davies/David axis is fully fit for the first time in two years.

Bosnia at 3.80 to qualify is the lads’ value pick. Džeko isn’t there, but Demirović and Bajraktarević give them a younger, sharper front line than they had in qualifying. Ecuador are well-coached but light on goals.

Brazil top is non-negotiable. The real bet is Morocco to qualify at 1.60 — Scotland and Haiti aren’t beating them, and the Brazil-Morocco opener will tell us a lot about both sides’ tournament ceilings.

Scotland’s third-place hopes hinge on the goal difference they can run up against Haiti. Clarke’s side will park the bus against Brazil, draw or lose narrowly to Morocco, and need to put four or five past Haiti to climb into the best-third bracket. Doable, not certain.

USA top at home, Paraguay the value second. Turkey are the bookies’ favourite for runner-up but the draw against Australia in Vancouver is a banana skin — the Socceroos always make tournaments awkward.

Paraguay at 2.80 to qualify is fair. Almirón has been outstanding in qualifying and Alfaro has them defending like an Argentine club side. We’d take that over Turkey, who can be brilliant and frustrating in the same game.

Germany walk it. The interesting market is Ecuador to qualify at 2.10 — Moisés Caicedo is the best midfielder in the group not playing for Germany, and Enner Valencia at a World Cup is always good for two goals.

The third spot is wide open. Algeria have the individual quality (Mahrez, Bounedjah) but their defence is genuinely thin. Take whichever side gets the better of their head-to-head and back them at the inflated post-fixture price.

Netherlands top, Japan second. The Japan price (2.30 to qualify) has shortened all summer and rightly so — Endo, Mitoma and Kubo make this the best Japan squad in a generation. Koeman’s Dutch side is the only obvious tournament-winner threat in the group.

Sweden at 3.40 to make the Round of 32 is fair, not great. Without Ibrahimović the goals have to come from Isak alone, and Tunisia will out-work them for 70 minutes of every game.

Belgium top, Iran second. New Zealand vs Egypt on June 21 is the one match where ‘draw no bet’ on Egypt at evens looks playable — Mo Salah is still Mo Salah, and the All Whites’ defence is brittle without Boxall.

Belgium’s price (1.40 to top the group) is short for a reason: Lukaku is firing, De Bruyne is rested, and Tedesco has them playing the most pragmatic football of any contender. Not pretty, but they’ll be in the quarters.

Spain top easily. Uruguay second is the consensus, but Cape Verde at 4.50 to qualify is the lads’ sneaky pick — they were impressive in qualifying and Bebé is having a renaissance at 36.

Uruguay’s issue is Bielsa. The football is gorgeous when it works and ruinous when it doesn’t, and the squad keeps getting older. Suárez and Cavani are gone; Núñez and Pellistri have to carry the goals on their own.

France top. We’ve already said it in the favourites article: Norway at 2.40 to qualify is our favourite group-stage bet of the whole tournament. Haaland and Ødegaard at their first World Cup is the storyline of the group stage.

Senegal are the side everyone underrates. Sadio Mané is fit again, Koulibaly anchors the defence, and the France-Senegal opener has the makings of a classic. A draw there would change the whole group.

Argentina obviously. Austria over Algeria for second — Rangnick has them organised, Arnautović is still scoring, and Algeria’s defence is thin without Mandi.

Iraq are the tournament outsider here and we don’t fancy them to win a game, but they’re disciplined enough to draw one and frustrate the goal difference. Worth knowing if you’re playing Argentina’s group winner margin.

Portugal top, Colombia second. James Rodríguez is healthy and that midfield (with Lerma and Ríos) is built for tournament football. The Portugal-Colombia game is one of the most interesting fixtures of the entire group stage.

DR Congo are the dark horse for third place at 3.10 — Bakambu and Mbemba make them more competitive than people expect, and Uzbekistan, while organised, simply don’t have the firepower.

England top, Croatia second. The lads’ upset shout: Ghana to qualify at 3.10. Kudus is in form, Iñaki Williams is fully integrated, and Iran is the softest ‘big six’ opener of any European nation’s path to the knockouts.

Croatia at this World Cup is a curiosity. Modrić will be 40 in September and almost certainly playing his last tournament. Dalić has done a quiet rebuild around Sučić and Baturina, but the gap between this side and the 2018/2022 vintages is real.

Eight of the twelve third-placed teams qualify, which sounds generous until you remember how brutal the seedings can be. Our shortlist for sides most likely to scrape through on goal difference: Czechia, Bosnia, Ecuador, Sweden, Egypt, Cape Verde, Austria and Ghana.

If you only play one third-place bet, make it Bosnia at 3.80. Group B is the most open of the twelve groups and three points plus a positive goal difference is well within reach.

If you fancy a small-stake six-fold for the group stage, here’s the lads’ ticket at the time of writing: Mexico to top Group A (1.85), Brazil to top Group C (1.45), USA to top Group D (2.05), Belgium to top Group G (1.40), Spain to top Group H (1.30) and France to top Group I (1.60). That comes in around 16/1 — not life-changing, but a fun coupon for the first ten days.

Lines move fast once the first matches land. The Spain, France and Brazil prices we quoted at the start of the tournament have already shortened a fraction this week, and the Morocco bandwagon is leaving the station. If you fancy any of these picks, hit the price before the next round of fixtures resets the market on Monday.

As always: stake responsibly, check the latest odds at your bookmaker of choice before betting, and never chase a losing day. 18+ only.